A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
