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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still